Tuesday, 4 December 2012

Astrophysicist forecasts 19th Little Ice Age in the past 7500 years

During each of the 18 deep solar minima of Maunder type with a bicentennial cycle in the during the last 7,500 years, deep cooling was observed, while during periods of high maxima – global warming.

Abdussamatov forecast graph

By looking at Total Solar Irradiance (TSI), astrophysicist Dr Habibullo I. Abdussamatov of Russia’s Pulkovo Observatory says he can define and predict well in advance the direction and amplitude of forthcoming climate changes.

From the early 90s, Dr Abdussamatov has observed bicentennial decrease in both the TSI and the portion of its energy absorbed by the Earth, which, he says, will result in a temperature drop in approximately 2014.

Then, due to the ensuing increase of albedo and decrease in greenhouse gases, the absorbed portion of solar energy and the influence of the greenhouse effect will additionally decline.

He expects the onset of a deep bicentennial minimum of TSI in 2042±11, and the beginning of a Little Ice Age – the 19th Little Ice Age in the past 7500 years – in 2055±11.

“William Herschel (1801) was the first to report correlation between a level of sunspot activity and a climate after his discovery of inverse interrelation between a wheat price and a level of cyclic variations of solar activity before and during Dalton minimum,” writes Dr Abdussamatov.

“When the Sun’s surface was covered with sunspots, the wheat prices were going down,” Herschel noted. “When the number of sunspots dropped the prices went up. He supposed that variations of wheat prices are the consequence of the corresponding climate changes. However, he could not explain the physical nature of this phenomenon.”

Later Eddy discovered the interconnection between sunspot activity during the last millennium and corresponding deep climatic changes. During each of the eighteen deep minima of solar activity (of Maunder type) with a bicentennial cycle in the preceding 7.5 millennia, deep cooling was observed, while during  periods of high maxima – global warming.”

Recent studies confirm eleven-year and bicentennial cyclic variations of the total solar irradiance (TSI) (with some time-lag) with the appearance of warm or cold water (La Niña and El Niño), which affects the climate as well.

“The Earth as a planet will henceforward have negative balance in the energy budget. This gradual consumption of solar energy accumulated by the World Ocean during the whole XX century will result in decrease of global temperature after 14±6 years because of a negative balance in the energy budget of the Earth. Since the Sun is now approaching the phase of decrease of bicentennial luminosity on the basis of observed accelerating drop in both the 11-year and bicentennial components of TSI from early 90s, we can forecast its further decline similar to a so called Maunder  minimum.”

This paper was posted in Applied Physics Research under the title “Bicentennial Decrease of the Total Solar Irradiance Leads to Unbalanced Thermal Budget of the Earth and the Little Ice Age” on 1 Feb 2012.

You can access the paper here:
(When you get to the above website, click on “Download this PDF file”

Source: Ice Age Now Info

New Ice Age to Begin in 2014

“Forecasters predict that a new ice age will begin soon,” says this article on

“Habibullo Abdusamatov, a scientist from the Pulkovo Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences considers that the sharp drop in temperature will start on the Earth in 2014.

“According to the scientist, our planet began to “get cold” in the 1990s. The new ice age will last at least two centuries, with its peak in 2055.

“It is interesting, that the same date was chosen by the supporters of the theory of global warming.

“The expected decrease in temperature may … become the fifth over the past nine centuries, reports Hydrometeorological Center of Russia. Experts call this phenomenon the “little ice age”, it was observed in the XII, XV, XVII, XIX centuries. This cyclicity makes the theory of upcoming cold weather in XXI century look like truth.”

Habibullo Abdussamatov is not just “a scientist.”

Dr Habibullo Abdussamatov, astrophysicist, is head of the Russian segment of the International Space Station, and head of Space Research of the Sun Sector at the Pulkovo Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

I’m inclined to take his forecasts seriously.

I’ve met Dr Abdussamatov, and posted other articles about him here:

And here:

Source: Ice Age Now Info

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